I laid out my reasons for doing a UFO book in my last post, in this one I will turn to the “what” of the book.
First however, in the interest of time, if anyone reading this happens to be in Oklahoma, I will be doing a book discussion and signing at the Full Circle bookstore, at 50 Penn Place (across from Penn Square), beginning at 6:30 the evening of Wednesday, July 19. I’d love to have company and it’s a fantastic venue; one of the nicest independent bookstores in the country.
So, what is different about this book? The answer to that would be focus. It makes no attempt to cover the entire spectrum of the subject, instead it specifically addresses UFO incidents which were deemed to be of military/security interest and investigated as potential threats. One of the long standing questions (suspicions) has been to what extent the military and the intelligence community took the subject seriously. On the surface there are good reasons for the question since a great many public statements and official reports on UFO’s were quite questionable and at times simply not credible to the public…sometimes laughably so.
The good news is that we now have the documents to determine exactly how seriously threat related UFO reports were taken – at the various levels from field intelligence, to the responsible headquarters investigative groups, on to Pentagon level organizations and beyond. Unidentified deals with that subject at great length, from World War II on-wards into the 1980s. It also goes into extreme detail examining incidents related to the Atomic warfare complex – beginning as early as 1947.
While individual incidents of that nature have been discussed in UFO literature, Unidentified develops them from an evolutionary perspective, showing how the official government response shifted over time – and the extent to which it became both internally and externally disconnected.
It is only with that sort of extended chronological approach that patterns can be seen to develop, both in terms of the incidents themselves (which themselves evolved from sightings to intrusions and on to something even more serious) as well as the actual security response. And it is with a study of the patterns, and their analysis, that Unidentified begins to differentiate itself.
Certainly others have raised the issue of a potential nuclear connection related to UFO incidents. What Unidentified does is to move that examination to a much finer level of “granularity” in evaluating the incidents and patterns, differentiating them not only in terms of targets, but in intensity, in timing and in operational attributes. Which is a wordy way of saying it evaluates them in terms of actual military activities and maps out trends in those activities over the study period.
It’s a technique variously referred to in the intelligence community as indications analysis and/or threat analysis – and in the private sector as strategic business analysis. Patterns and trends are important and so is the concept of mapping the indicators to alternative competing hypotheses. That’s a practice which developed during the Cold War, referred to as ACH, which was developed to search out potential intentions of foreign powers whose motives were unclear and who often were clearly trying to conceal their actual activities and plans.
In Unidentified I use a matrix of four competing scenarios and test each one progressively throughout the entire thirty year study period. That leads me to some pretty specific observations, not only in regard to intentions but also concerning exactly how and why the subject essentially defeated the national intelligence community. It’s not a kind assessment but it does highlight some very pragmatic aspects of military and threat intelligence work – as well as offering some reasonably concrete opinions as to the reality of what was being reported.
More about what is in – and not in – the book in following posts.